Battling the Books | July 10th

Cut Up by Connecticut

It was the kind of loss that didn’t just hurt my bankroll; it hurt my eyes and my brain.

On my last bet, on Sunday, I took Over 150 in Atlanta/Connecticut.

At the end of the first quarter, they combined for 36 points, and I was on track for the Over.
But then they played the second quarter.

With almost 4 minutes gone out of a 10 minute quarter NEITHER team had scored a point.
NOT ONE SINGLE POINT! In FOUR minutes!
A few seconds away from the midway point of the second quarter the score was 2-2, which would extrapolate out to an eight-point quarter.

The second quarter ended with Connecticut putting up a pitiful 14 points while Atlanta, not to be outdone in the Severe Suckage department, scored an anemic 8 points, for a combined 22 point quarter.

And my Over was six feet Under before halftime.
So naturally, I stopped watching.

I came back at the end of the third quarter to see how badly I was losing and . . . I can’t believe it – they combined for a 58 point third quarter.
After just 22 points in Q2 they put up 58 in Q3.

And I only need a mere 34 points in Q4 to win!

They could score 24 points fewer than they did in the third quarter, and I’ll still win.
I can’t believe it. My Over has come back from the dead.
I’m going to win this one.

But then . . . they played the fourth quarter.

I needed just 17 points from each team.
I got 18 from from Atlanta.
Connecticut? The Sun put up a miniscule 13.
They followed up a 33-point Q3 with a 13
point Q4. And the game lands on 147.
Aaarrrrrggggggghhhhhh!!!!!!

It was easily one of the most excruciatingly painful games I’ve had to watch this season.
It went from a disaster of a loss, to an all-but sure-thing win, to a heartbreaking close loss.

After yet ANOTHER missed layup by the Sun with about a minute left to go in the game, I launched a deafening verbal assault declaring the lack of personal hygiene of their players.
And I was suddenly overcome with a feeling of deja vu – has cursing out the Connecticut Sun been happening a lot in my world lately?

I grabbed my logbook, tallied up my record in Connecticut games, and I saw that I’m 2-5, sides and totals, when using a game with the Sun. I have 13 losses on the season. That means almost 40% of my losses on the entire season came from games when I used the Sun.

And the cursing began anew.

Digging deeper, I discovered that I’ve lost four games using Minnesota. That means almost 70% of my losses have come from just two teams, Connecticut and Minnesota.
This is valuable information as I move forward, handicapping the WNBA.
And it’s information I would not have if I didn’t keep a log book or database and track my play.
And one of the many reasons why you should too.
You HAVE to know your strengths and weaknesses as a handicapper.
Which teams do you see clearly and win when you bet on them?
Which teams are the ones that you just can’t seem to get right, the teams you lose on more than others, the teams you should avoid betting on?
Keep a database and track your play!

Fortunately, on my second bet Sunday, Odyssey Sims saved my life by allowing my blood pressure to come back down from the stratospheric heights the Connecticut Sun had sent it soaring to. Odyssey scored 11 points in the first half alone, getting me an easy W on Ov 10′.

Recap: 1-1
Record: 5-4

Today’s play

The All-Star/Olympic break starts on July 17th.
There are no games on Monday, July 15th.
That means there are only seven days with games left for July, and one of those days has only one game scheduled, which means there’s only a slim chance I’ll have a play.
So, the best I can expect is approximately six plays between now and the break.

I’m sitting at 5-4, so I need to go 3-3 to hit my first two goals: no damage to my bankroll and finish with the profit, any profit.

I’m a grinder.
As I come to the end of the current window I’m working in (the month of July) I’m right where I want to be – within striking distance of a win.

Today, I’m buying the Phoenix Mercury.

One of my methods for choosing Wrong Favs says Dallas should be the Fav today.
Overall this play is 8-12.
For RD teams like Dallas is today it has a record of 6-7. Not much of an edge but I think it has a better chance of going 6-8 than 7-7.

Dallas is 5-8 ATS on the road
Phoenix is 7-4 ATS at home.

Dallas is one of my favorite teams to bet against, because, well, basically they stink.
Overall, they’re just 5-17, tied for the worst record in the WNBA.

Dallas has faced Phoenix three times already this season and lost by 15 points on the RD and 7 points, and 8 points at Hm.

Dallas has lost four of their last five games, three of them by double digits and one by eight points, all of those enough to cover today’s number.

Phoenix is 2-0 on their current road trip.
Today’s number, -7′ is very tight, but hopefully Phoenix will be winning and get a couple free throws at the end of the game to cover the -7′ and make it a sweep of Dallas for the season.

Phoenix -7′

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