Battling the Books | July 1
It’s official. June is in the books.
How did I do?
In my very first article here at PredictEm I stated my goals for sports betting, and I’ll restate them here:
1 – Do Not Lose Money
2 – Finish with a Profit – ANY Profit
3 – Seek the Grail: 67%
And of course – HAVE FUN!
Along with a lot of other advice for new bettors, (and any of you who are trying to stop bleeding cash and get your bankroll back to the plus side of the ledger) I recommended not treating your sports betting as an open ended, never ending war. Set goals for time frames (weeks or months) and sports (keep separate records and numbers for college football, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.)
Win enough battles and you’ll win the war.
June was the first window I had. Overall, all sports, I came in at 16-13, enough to bank a small profit.
I hit goal number one and two.
And I had a LOT of fun, crunching numbers and sharing my tips, methods, and picks with you.
Round one in my Battle with the Books has ended, and the judge’s scorecards have it as a 10-9 round for me.
The next window I have is July.
Same goals, as always.
The WNBA season started on May 14th, so I now have six weeks worth of data to help me try to Beat the Books in July. That should make it easier, BUT . . . I’ll have limited opportunities as the league goes on break for the All-Star game and then the Olympics.
The All Star break begins on July 18th, and they don’t come back from the Olympic break until August 14.
Like I said, limited opportunities in July.
So where will I get some action?
Hell if I know.
NASCAR?
Possibly. Depends on what track they’re at.
Even with money on it I can’t watch when they’re racing at tracks that are boring.
I need a high percentage possibility of metal hitting metal, or walls, or else my Sunday afternoon TV viewing finds me channel flipping over to Wicked Tuna. Or Naked and Afraid (but only if the chick on it is hot. If not, it’s back to channel flipping, looking for something that can hold my attention. Yes, that’s shallow, I know, but I’ve come to accept my shortcomings.)
CFL?
Possibly. But despite having been fortunate enough to live in Vancouver, BC for two years, I still find the northern version of the game a little bit weird.
Unlike football here in the US, in Canada you can score one point without kicking an extra point. I’m not sure how, I could look it up but I just don’t care enough to take time to do so. It has something to do with punt returns, or not returned, or something. And I still don’t get how the clock could show .00, which in the normal world means the game is over, but in the country that is responsible for Loverboy and Nickelback they can still run one more play.
But they did give us Norm Macdonald, so Canada will always be okay in my book.
Boxing?
It’s always been my favorite sport, but there just aren’t enough quality, evenly matched bouts to make it advantageous from a wagering point of view. Seems like every time I check the odds the favorite is -1,200.00 or higher. At the Sports book I’d see people lay odds like those and I had to refrain myself from asking, “You’re risking $1,200 to win $100. So what is it that you’re going to do with $1,300 that you couldn’t do with $1,200?”
It just doesn’t make sense to me.
Tennis? Golf? Soccer???
I don’t think so.
Like life in general, I’ll just take things day by day.
Note – all of the advice I offer is based on years as a bettor and years of experience gained while running a sports book in Vegas. I never say it’s the right way, I only say it works for me. And it can work for you, too.
Record: 0-0
- WNBA YTD (Year To Date):
- Overall: 10-9
- Favs: 5-6, Dogs 1-1
- Overs 2-1, Unders 2-1
Review: I slipped by with a 1-point win using Minnesota, but missed by 4 points with the Over in the Indy/Phx game. I had quarters of 46, 41, and 44 heading into the 4th quarter, meaning all I needed was 43 to get a Push at worst case. That number was right in line with the first three quarters, but the 4th came in at 39. I lost, but it was a really fun game to watch.
Today’s bet
Slim Pickens to choose from tonight but I’m going to take a chance with the Seattle Storm.
This game that fits a trend reversal system I use that says take the Storm to beat the Dallas Wings.
The overall record is 11- 13, not much of an edge to make me want to take Seattle.
And it’s even worse for home teams like Seattle is tonight, the record is 3-6.
The only saving grace I have is Home teams in this spot are 6-5.
So with not a lot of numbers in my favor why am I taking Seattle?
Let’s start with the fact that Seattle IS going to win the game. That means I only have to worry about the spread. And yes, the spread is high but it’s where it should be against Dallas, the worst team in the league at 4-14.
But the main reason I’m taking Seattle is because they’re killers on their home court.
Starting with their most recent victory they’ve won by 21 (against tonight’s opponent, Dallas) 12, 11 (against Connecticut, the number one defense in the league), 17, 18, 32, and 2, an average of 16 points per game.
Dallas has lost five of the last six by double digits and I’m looking for one more tonight.
Sea -11′
Open bet : Oklahoma -40′
June record, all sports, 16-13