Battling the Books | Independence Day Edition

An Apology, but . . . Some Good News Too

I wanted to get to this yesterday but was short on time. On Tuesday, I posted my play on Indiana and Las Vegas to go Over.
And that’s the play I bought.
But mid-morning, I got off the play and took the Under.
Sorry about that. I’ll explain.

My typical morning schedule goes like this:

Run all of the games being played that day through the various methods I use to identify possible picks.

Check the lines.

Make my bets.

Write my analysis.

Proofread and edit my article and picks.

Submit before the deadline.

After that, I’m usually done with my handicapping, but on occasion, I see something that catches my eye later in the day, and I make an additional bet or two.

On Tuesday, something was nagging me about that Indy/LV Over.
Yes, it did fit one of my systems, barely, at 1-2.
But that 178′ was looking high to me, so I took a closer look at it.
I looked over a full week’s worth of WNBA games with final scores in regulation time, and none of them were over 178 points scored.
Only 2 of 14 games saw more than 178 points scored. Only 40% of games went over 178.
That was for the entire league.

Next, I went to do a team-specific check, and here’s what I found for the recent play of the two teams in the game I was betting.
Indiana’s last five games were all under 178.
Las Vegas’ last five games all under 178.

I dug a little deeper and found that in Indiana’s last ten games all ten were under 178.
Vegas had 3 of 10 that went over 178.
Those numbers combined for 3 out of 20 games, surpassing the total I needed.

And I realized what that nagging feeling was that kept tugging on my brain. I was on the wrong side.
So I bought off the Over and put enough on the Under to cover my bet on the Over, the juice, and still have a normal profit for an action play.

The problem is – I had no way to communicate this to anyone who read the column and decided to ride with me on the Over.
For this, I apologize.
I don’t think it makes me look good as in, “Hah! I had the right side after all.”
I think it makes me look like a jackass for posting one thing and then buying the other. And I didn’t have to mention this at all, but one thing you will find in my articles is honesty. Complete and total honesty.

But, here’s some good news. Somewhere between now and when football season starts, we’ll have established a way I can communicate throughout the day with PredictEm readers.
I’ll be able to post notices on any changes to my morning picks (although what happened with the total in the Indy/Vegas game is extremely rare, I can’t remember the last time I bought off a play.) The main reason I’m excited to offer open communications is that I can share any picks and analysis on games I add after the morning deadline for my daily Battle with the Books post. And I can post my second-half plays for college football, which I tend to make a lot of based on halftime adjustments.

So, once again, sorry about the Tuesday debacle, and I look forward to sharing more picks in the future.

Recap: 2-0
Record: 3-1

Review: I had none of my system plays active yesterday, so I went with my gut feeling on Phoenix.

As noted yesterday, I was really leery about that Mercury -4′ pick. It just looked too easy, too obvious.
When they went up by 17 in the 3rd quarter, I thought it was going to be a blowout, but Dallas made a late run and closed to within 2 points before losing by 8, giving me the cover.
As for the prop bet, I was an oddsmaker. I know how to spot a bad number, and 20′ points was a bad number for Kahleah Copper.
It was so bad that it closed at 21′.
Books don’t like to move off prop numbers. They’ll increase the juice, but they don’t like to move off the number and risk getting middled.
How bad was 20′?
She scored 34.

NEXT!

Todays play

I have four system spots to choose from.

Two of them say to take the Over in the Connecticut/Minnesota game. But they have conflicting records, one is 2-1 the other is 1-2.
No edges, no play for me.

One says Las Vegas is the Wrong Fav.
The Aces are a -15′ point Hm Favs over 5-15 Washington today. There’s NO WAY Washington should be WF’s which tells me my numbers are wonky on this one and I don’t have time to go back and double check them.

The fourth spot says Connecticut should be the favorite in their game against Minnesota.
The overall record on this play is 6-11.
The road team in this spot is 4-7, giving me a 63% fade on Connecticut.

I actually like the Sun in this game, but a few days ago, after losing a play using Connecticut, I said I’m not playing them again until I check their record as a WF and my record when I bet on them.
They’re 0-2 as the team to play AGAINST in this WF spot.
I’m 0-2 when I bet on them.

Minnesota is 9-1 SU at Hm, and only have to cover a small spread of -2′ today.
In those 10 games they’re 7-3 ATS.

Connecticut is 7-2 on the Rd, but just 4-5 ATS.
In their only meeting this year, Connecticut won by one point, at home. Minnesota will be looking for a little payback today.
I actually like the Sun, but my numbers say Fade them and take Minnesota. Today I’m ignoring my gut and riding with my numbers.
Min -2′