Battling the Books: Duke Team Total Pick

Arizona vs Duke Predictions, Side and a Total
When: Thursday, March 27th, 6:30 p.m. PST
Line: Duke -9′ total 153′

The third round of the NCAA tournament finds Arizona and Duke meeting for the second time this season. In the previous game, Duke won by double digits, 69-55.

Duke is -9 in this game.
On the season they’re 18-8, 69% ATS, when favored by 9 1/2 or more.
Arizona is 4-5 as underdogs this season.

The Blue Devil’s team total for this game is set at 81. Despite this number being 12 points higher than they scored in the first meeting, I like the Over.

Where am I going to get a dozen extra points from?
I’m looking at four different areas that could help me.

1) Stat Comparisons, Last Meeting/Season Averages

The statistics from the first meeting were below Duke’s per game averages.
They hit 42% of FG’s, seven percentage points fewer than their standard average of 49%.
They shot 36% on three pointers, 2% under their standard 38%.
I expect in a win-or-go-home scenario against this Arizona defense Duke will improve on their numbers from the first game.
And Arizona will definitely improve on their 55 points scored. This is important because if Az is getting blown out again Duke will slow the pace, especially late in the second half.

2) Cooper Flagg

In three games without Flagg, Duke scored 78, 74, and 73, for an average of 75 PPG.
I need six points above that 75 to hit my 81.
Can Cooper Flagg make up the difference?
With Flagg back in the starting lineup for the last two games Duke scored 93 and 89, an average of 91 PPG, with Flagg contributing 14, and 18 points.

3) Fan Base Energy

Newark, New Jersey is a short flight or just a seven hour drive from Carolina so you can expect the crowd to be heavily pro Duke.
The Blue Devils 69 points scored in the previous meeting came in a road game.
They score an average of 83 PPG at home and 81 on the road, both numbers more than I need here, and the cheering crowd should help.

4) Free Throws

Arizona is ranked 133rd in the country for free throws allowed to their opponent, averaging 18.1 per game. In their first meeting this year Duke only had 13 attempts. They WILL have more in this game.
I expect Duke to be ahead on the scoreboard in the final minutes, which should lead to some late free throws adding to their total.

Those four reasons alone lead me to believe I can get to 81.
But recent scores seal the deal for me.
Duke is blowing out their opponents thus far in the tournament. Their first round win was by 44 points over an expectedly out matched Mount St Mary’s, 93-49.
Their second round was a step up in competition, facing a very good 26-8 Baylor.
Duke was the Fav at -13 and won by 23 points, 89-66.
Average points scored in the two games was 91, ten points higher than the total I need in the Az game.

Arizona also had a blowout in their first game, winning by 28 points over 13 seed Akron. But unlike Duke, when the Wildcats stepped up in competition in round 2 they not only didn’t get a another blowout but they were almost sent home.
And they looked lousy in crunch time.

The Ducks scored first and were up 2-0.
Six minutes later Oregon was up 19-4, a blow out in the making.
I had Az -3′ as my PredictEm forum pick for the day and I turned off the TV in disgust. I checked back in at halftime to find the Wildcats were actually up by four!

It was a gutsy comeback but it was their play in the closing minutes that convinced me that Arizona has gone as far as they’re going to go in the tournament.
Up by 7 points with just over a minute left they got a steal in the back court. They had a three-on-one advantage running towards their basket and instead of taking the easy layup they tried to get fancy and do an alley-oop.
They missed.
Showboats.
And that’s why I call it Kid’s Ball – because they play like little kids sometimes.

That layup would have given them a nine point lead that would have all but sealed the deal with just 1:39 left on the game clock. Instead, Oregon capitalized on the mistake and closed to within one point before Caleb Love hit two free throws with two seconds left on the clock, allowing Arizona to advance to the next round.

Obviously, I’m not handicapping Ore/Duke based on one play in the Duck’s last game but I didn’t like their play in the closing minutes of the game, when it matters most.
You can’t win making stupid mistakes and playing poorly at this point in the tournament, against this level of competition.
And hitting just 12-22, 54%, on free throws wasn’t pretty either.

Arizona barely made it out of the last round and I just don’t see them advancing to the Elite Eight. They’re going to lose SU, so the question is – will they cover the spread?
And will they score more than 81 points?

Let’s look at some averages.
Duke scores an average of 83.PPG.
Enough to get a win on Over 81.

Arizona gives up 72.5
That leaves me nine short of what I need.
But they just gave up 83 to Oregon
Can Duke score more than the Ducks?
Hell yeah.
The Blue Devils put up 93 vs Mount Saint Mary’s, who usually surrenders just 70.7 PPG.
Then they put up 89 versus Baylor, whose defense gives up an average of 69.8 PPG.

Duke has scored 81 or more points in 20 of their 36 games this season. That’s just 55%, but recent results show Duke has scored more than 81 points in six of their last 10 games, 60%.

The two team’s average game score is 165. With Duke at -9 in this one that would mean their team total should be 86, five points higher than the 81 I’m buying here.

The Wildcats are 1-1 SU in revenge spots.
They lost to West Virginia then came back to beat them in the next meeting. They lost to Houston in their first meeting and then again in the second.
While Arizona will be looking for revenge for the loss earlier this season, Duke has a little bit of a revenge angle going themselves. Arizona star Caleb Love played on the North Carolina team that KO’d Duke in the final four three years ago.
Now the Blue Devils get a second shot at him.
Arizona’s not a one-star team, they have a solid starting lineup around Love. But head coach Scheyer’s game plan will revolve around stopping the Carolina transfer and if they do it’s going to be a long night for the Wildcats.
And a long, sad trip back to Arizona.

My plays

Duke -9′
Duke Ov 81, -118

Recap: 1-0
Record: 5-4
Review: I ignored the hot 21-5 trend to the Under and went with my gut on Drake vs Texas Tech, taking Over 126′. Final score was 77-64, a total of 141. Cleared the bar by double digits.
I’m not ready to totally abandon that trend yet but with just a few games left on the college football schedule I may not get any games that qualify. If I do, I’ll post them in an article or in the PredictEm forum.
Side note – kudos and congrats to our very own Veronica Vroom. In her article last week she gave her three picks to help bettors cash in on NASCAR’s Straight Talk Wireless 400 in Miami: Larson (her pick to win), Briscoe, and Allmendinger.
Larson won, Briscoe finished 4th and Allmendinger finished 7th – all three in the top 10.
And I’m kicking myself in the butt for not using any of them in matchups, a mistake I won’t be making next week. Check the forum for my NASCAR matchup plays, 3-1 record so far this season.

Final note – the UFL season two begins this week, on Friday night. Just like last year I’ll have picks every week. I’ll have this week’s pick(s) posted in the forum. See ya there. (edited)