Battling the Books – Data-Driven Betting and a Fun Homer Pick

September Accounting and a RARE MLB Play

I closed the month with a win on my NFL prop bet on Geno Smith last night.
September is now in the books.
What do the numbers look like?

All picks, 24-19.5, still grinding out a profit, a couple of hundred dollars banked based on a standard betting unit of -110/100.

Let’s look at the good and bad within the numbers to see where I need to improve (ALWAYS look at your plays to see where your wins are coming from and more importantly where your losses are coming from, so you can adjust your play if necessary.)

In my fourth month at PredictEm, I had my first month with a subpar record with home page plays, 10-10.5, under by half a unit plus a full unit with juice factored in (every ten losses equals one unit lost in juice.)
The ability to post plays in the forum is a welcome addition. Without the time constraints of a publishing deadline for homepage articles, the forum allows me to take more time to ‘cap. I was 14-9 in the forum in September, allowing me to grind out my September profit at 24-19’.

Total record for my four months giving analysis and free picks here at PredictEm, homepage, and forum, is now 68-47.5.
That’s 59% at over 100 picks given.
I’m hitting my goals of “Don’t do any damage to the bankroll,” “Finish with a profit, ANY profit,” and… have fun!

How can I improve?
Examining the 10.5 losses in September, I see:
WNBA: 1-1
College football: 7-3
NFL: 2-6.5

Easy to see where the problem is. And not hard to figure out why my NFL is not doing well.
I can’t win if none of my systems are giving me records I can play ON or AGAINST. And here’s what I have in the NFL:
WF1, Hm 1-3, Rd 6-7
WF2, Hm 5-6, Rd 0-0
T1 Ov 5-5, T1 Un 6-6
H/C Ov 2-2 Un 0-0

Everything’s sitting at approximately .500, giving me nothing to bet ON or Fade.
The only play that’s giving me an edge is the one marked with the asterisk in the pictures that accompanied my articles.
It’s 0-3, but not giving me many opportunities.

The way my style of handicapping works is to start slowly while I build up some data, then use that data to start profiting. With numbers like the ones I just listed above, it’s going to be tough sledding in the NFL this year.

Today’s play:

Bal -143
KC/Bal Ov 6′ -118I work hard, I play conservative, I grind out a profit. As long as I have a profit I deserve to have a little fun sometimes on a sport I don’t do a lot of handicapping work on, as a reward for doing the right thing for most of the year. Admittedly, these are homer picks, I’m an Orioles fan.

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