Battling the Books | August 21

WNBA prop bet – A’ja Wilson Total Points

Today’s play:

A’ja Wilson Over 26′ pts, -115

Yesterday I made two bets against a lousy Wilson, (Russell.)
Today, I’m betting on the good Wilson, A’ja.

Though nothing fits any of my handicapping systems today, I haven’t had action since Sunday, so I have an itch that needs to be scratched.

Tonight the Las Vegas Aces and their Superstar A’ja Wilson host the Minnesota Lynx.
The books have set her number for total points at 26′ with small juice or 27′ as a slight dog price.
I’ll take the smaller number.

A’ja is averaging 27.3 PPG this season.

Since the Olympic break, she’s averaging 29.

In her last game, she put up 34.

She’s hit better than 26′ in six of her last ten games, 60%.

In her last five home games she’s averaging 27.2.

She’s gone Over tonight’s number in three of her last five home games.

At 26′, the number is tight, but here’s what sealed the deal for me – she’s on three days rest, having last played on Sunday.
Here are her points scored when she’s on three days rest: 24, 28, 31, 27, 36, 29, 22.

Five of seven games are Over tonight’s number.

Three of four of home games with three days rest went Over tonight’s number.

Those numbers and percentages point to an Over tonight. I’m 7-3 on prop bets here at PredictEm, 5-3 on WNBA props, and I’m going for another one tonight.

Recap: 0-1
Record (Aug): 7-2

Review:
Last time in, on Sunday, I lost by a basket with the Con/Atl game over. I got more than the points I needed from Atlanta, but Connecticut screwed me.
Again.
I just checked my database and I see that a whopping 30% of my WNBA losses are on just one team, the Connecticut Sun.

The game wasn’t televised, so I did occasional checks on the score. I knew I was in trouble after Connecticut put up a 15-point first quarter. When the game ended I was pissed off about a two-point loss so I went to the box score to see who cost me a unit.
I’m looking at players lines and I see this:
Marina Mabrey, 37 minutes; FG 4-17, 3 Pt 2-10.
4-17?
FOUR for SEVENTEEN??!!
2-10?
TWO for TEN??!!
I found the reason I lost.
And then I had a feeling of deja vu.
And I remembered . . .
From Battling the Books June 24:

“With 18 seconds left in the game, Marina Mabrey, the team’s leading scorer, is going to the foul line to shoot two, and I only need one.
I’m going to cover the -1′. Yay me!
But . . . she misses BOTH.
And Mabrey goes on my s*it list. Forever.”
Newman!!!

I’ve written about this before – part of being a winning sports bettor is learning from your mistakes and not repeating them. Yesterday, Connecticut was in the same spot they were in on Monday.
The game had all the strong indicators for an Over that Sunday’s game had. And I did a write-up on the game to use for Tuesday’s article.
But I couldn’t pull the trigger on it for a recommended play here, because of my history using Connecticut.
I watched as the opening line went from 153′ to 158 by tip-off.
The game landed on 130.
The game stayed Un by a whopping 28 points.
I didn’t lose a unit. I learned from my mistakes.

And how did I know that 30% of my losses came from games with Connecticut and that I should try to avoid them?

Because I track and chart my own plays.
And you should, too.

Here endeth the lesson.

Note: Football season is here! Be sure to get our weekly NFL picks and to kick your season off right with a 100% bonus from one of numerous top tier books!