Battling the Books | Aug 28

Today’s play:

Connecticut/Indiana Under 164′

Wednesday night the Las Vegas/Dallas game qualified for the same play I’ve used twice in the last few days for wins on one of my methods for choosing Unders (see my articles dated Friday the 23rd and Monday the 26th) .
I chose to stay off it, just a gut feel kind of thing.

The total was set at 180′.
The total at halftime was 79, a run rate for 21 points under the set total, and I was thinking I was too conservative and may have cost myself a winner.
The second quarter came in at 51, and the fourth quarter came in at 53, both high above the WNBA average PPG per quarter.
And the game went over by 2′ points.

My point?

Using standard odds laying $110 to win $100, a win gains you $100. A loss costs you $110.
So laying off of a bet that loses is actually a little bit better than picking up a winner (a $10 differential.)
You don’t HAVE to bet every game.
Listen to your gut.

And that same Under play is active tonight in two different games. I’m playing one of them, the Connecticut Sun visiting the Indiana Fever.
The opening number of 165 is down to 164 at many houses but our sponsor Bovada has it at 164′ right now. And if you don’t have an account there yet -WHY NOT??!!

It’s a very interesting matchup. We have one of the highest scoring teams in the league, the Caitlin’s (82.7 PPG) facing the number one defense in the league, the Sun (73.4 PPG.)

In three previous meetings this season one game went Over tonight’s total and two stayed Under. The Over was eight points higher than tonight’s total and the other two games stayed under by three points and one point.
All three of those games were played before the Olympic break.
Four of Connecticut’s five games in the second half stayed Under tonight’s number.
Three of four of Indy’s games have gone Over tonight’s number.

From every angle I look at this game it seems that the book’s number tonight is dead on the money and it’s a tough call either way on the total. But I’ll stick with what’s been working for me. The record for this play is combined 16-8, 12-6 on the Under. And I have a subset that says when my other method disagrees and says the game goes Over it stayed Under the total with a record of 5-1.
And anytime I have percentages over 58% . . .

Recap: 1-0
Record (August): 12-3
Review: Banked a winner with NY/Phx Under 167 as they combined for 154.

Football season is here! Beating the bookies is TOUGH! Don’t go at it without taking advantage of every edge possible! Boost your bankroll by scoring one of numerous special 100% sportsbook bonuses we’ve setup for our readers! Free money is good money!