Battling the Books | Aug 26

Today’s play:

New York Liberty/Phoenix Mercury Under 167

If you look at the homepage picture on my article dated August 23rd, you’ll see on the second row from the left, orange ink, O/U 4-2 on top, 10-5 on the bottom. That’s from my best system for totals in the WNBA, 14-7 overall, 4-2 on the Over, 10-5 on the Under.

The free play that was given in that article was on the Phoenix/Atlanta game to go Under.
The play won again and is now 15-7 (68%) overall and 11-5 on the Under.

And one game qualifies today, the Liberty at the Mercury. And like Friday’s game, tonight’s contest also qualifies for the same subset mentioned in that article, when two of my methods for determining games that will go under match, both agreeing the number on tonight’s game it’s too high.
After hitting on Friday night, that record is now at 7-4.

Looking at Head to Head performances, these two have met twice this season, one game staying Under tonight’s total, one game going Over.

Overall for the season on Ov/Un’s, New York is 15-16 and Phoenix is 13-16, a slight edge to the Under for both.

Recent play shows New York’s games staying Under four of their last five, and four of six since returning from the Olympic break. Phoenix’s totals are 2-2-1 over their last five games and the same number since the Olympic break.

Tight numbers all around, slight edge to the unders for general numbers, but very playable edges percentage-wise for my handicapping methods at 68% for the main play and 63% for the subset.
It was a close one with the Under on Phoenix Friday night, but a win nonetheless and I’m sticking with what works.

Recap: 1-0 on Saturday night, 1-0 on Sunday.
Record (August): 11-3

Review:
Got the W Saturday laying four points with Minnesota versus the Caitlin’s.
The Lynx won by 10.
Minnesota was in control all the way, as the game played out just as expected. (For a handicapper, it’s nice when that happens!)

On Sunday, I banked another unit with the Edmonton/Montreal game, taking the Elks as Dogs +7. The Alouettes won 21-17.

That final score makes it look like it was a comfortable win, but Edmonton made me sweat it out. I was at +7 when the game started and then +18 at halftime after the Elks took a 17-6 lead. But Edmonton surrendered TD’s on Montreal’s first two possessions of the second half, making it a tight one. The Elks went scoreless in the second half, but held on for the ATS win.

Edmonton’s Coach Jackson showed he can be as lousy at calling plays as his recently terminated predecessor. After total domination with the run game in the first half, the Elks came out in the second half and . . . switched to a passing game. Which is why they lost again and have a record of 3-8, sitting in last place in the West division, where they’re likely to remain for the rest of the season.

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