Battling the Books | Aug 24

The Caitlin’s to Get Clawed by the Lynx

Friday night’s two picks:

Phoenix/Atlanta Under 162′
Final score 82-80 (162)

Hamilton/Winnipeg Under 49′
Final score 26-23 (49)

Sometimes you die by the hook, and sometimes . . .

Both came down to the final seconds.
The Phoenix game was particularly dramatic and worth every penny as a sports betting viewer looking for some action and fun.
The score was at 82-79 (161 points) in the final seconds.
Up by three points, Atlanta had the ball.
I’m yelling at my TV, telling Phoenix, “Don’t foul, don’t foul!”
But fouling Atlanta so they couldn’t take a three-pointer and tie the game was the right thing to do. And that’s exactly what the Mercury did with one second left on the clock.
If they hit both free throws, I’m going to lose by half a point.
They hit the first, and then . . . BOINK!
The second shot rims out, and I win by the hook.

And Winnipeg scored a TD with less than a minute left, getting my second win by a hook for the night.

Now on to more important things – tonight’s action.

The Indiana Clarks are in one of my Wrong Favorite spots. WF2 has a record of 7-10 on road teams like Indiana tonight, a 59% Fade.

I also have a subset: “When WF1 says the team that is the actual favorite will win by more than five points over the book’s number, WF2’s record is 2-4, a 67% Fade.
In tonight’s game, that differential is 7′.
(Yes, part of my handicapping process is comparing the different systems I use to see how they perform against each other. It’s how I come up with some of my subsets.)

My numbers give me a 59% Fade and a 67% Fade on this game. Like I said yesterday, anytime I’ve got a play over 58%, I’m on it!

This morning, the line has gone from an opening Min- 5′ to -4′. There are three reasons for this.

First, Indiana has been hot. They’ve won four of their last five games and are 2-0 since the Olympic break, beating two good teams, Seattle and Phoenix. In those games, they scored 98 and 92 points.

Second, Minnesota played last night. It’s unusual for WNBA teams to play back-to-back nights, and it’s always slightly factored into the line that they may be a little tired in the second game.

Third, the public LOVES Caitlin Clark.
Attendance in non-Caitlin games averages 7,645. Average attendance in Caitlin’s games is
15,591, more than TWICE as many.

WNBA merchandise sales are up 500% over last year’s numbers. Do I have to tell you who the top seller is?

Minnesota has been in the B2B (back-to-back nights) situation once before this season.
In game two, they beat Atlanta 92-79.
That game was on the road, after having traveled because they played at home the night before. In this B2B spot, they’re playing at home after being at home last night. Removing the travel factor takes away a little from the “they’ll be tired after playing the night before” concern.

And though Indiana has beaten good teams like Phoenix and Seattle in the last two games, Minnesota is a step above that talent level. They’re now tied with Connecticut for the second-best record in the league, just a few games behind the first-place New York Liberty (a Liberty team the Lynx have defeated in two of three meetings this year, including the Commissioner’s Cup championship Game and the $40,000 per player prize money that came with it.)

I’ll hold off on buying this one until later today.
Like I said, Indiana’s been hot and the public loves betting on Indiana. I expect more money will come in on them throughout the day. I’m betting that if I wait I can get a better number before game time, nine hours from now, 5 pm PST, televised on the NBA Network.

I’ll post the line I get in the PredictEm Forum later this afternoon. I’ll also have a second WNBA play that I’ll post there and a CFL pick using the same method as I used in last night’s game. See ya there!

Recap: Wednesday 0-1 (I forgot to post this in yesterday’s article. I lost with the A’ja Wilson prop.) Friday 2-0, hit with the Under in the Phoenix game and Winnipeg game.

Record (August): 9-3, WNBA August record 4-2.