Battling the Books – Aug 23

Phoenix at Atlanta a 67% Play

I’ve spoken often about the different methods I use to handicap, keeping a notebook and using different colored pens to separate the plays.

Here’s what today’s chart looks like.
On the top of the page you see the letters WF in three different color inks. These are the three different methods I have for identifying Wrong Favorites.

On the far left in purple, you’ll see a method that rarely kicks out a play. It’s 0-2 on home teams and 0-0 on road teams, so all season long, just two plays. (Why do I charge it if it doesn’t kick out any plays? Just in case it does. And because in college football it’s my best money making play. One season, it went on an epic run on Unders, 32-4. Yes, 32-4, all documented in time stamped on the internet. So I track it in football and basketball out of respect for that killer season and hoping to hit another run someday.)

In the middle, in orange, you’ll see the play I refer to as WF1.
It’s a decent Fade on home teams at 3-6, not much value on road teams at 7-8.

On the right side, in light blue, you’ll see the player referred to as WF2. Both records are close to 500, slight value on road teams as a Fade at 7-10.

Underneath the WF’s, you see the four different ways I handicap totals
The top number is the record for Overs, the bottom number is the record for Unders.

You see the orange 10-5?
That’s the one I have a play on today.

Under the date written in black you’ll see the time, 4′ (meaning 4:30.) Next to that, the type of play, side or total, in this case O/U for a total, followed by the two teams.
The first number is my number, the second number is the book’s number.
The black square with the letters Un in it designates whether it’s an Under or Over, and inside the circle next to that is the differential between my number and the books.
A differential of X is what makes a game qualify as a play.

On the far left you’ll see a capital A in black and on the far right you’ll see 162 in blue.
The 162 represents the number on the game from my other method, the capital A means both methods agree this game goes Under.
If one side says the game goes Under and the other said Over there would be a capital D, meaning they don’t agree.
That’s where I get the subsets I mention.
In this case, both methods agree this game stays Under. The subset record for this is 6-4.

So I have a main system that has a record of 10-5 for a 67% play, and I have a subset with a record of 6-4 for 60%.
When I have a play with 58% or better, I’m on it!

Today’s play:

Phx/Atl Un 162′

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