Battling the Books | Aug 16

Beware the Preseason Variables

It’s hard enough beating your book during the regular season with the many different considerations you have to factor into your handicapping.
In the preseason there are even more factors to consider, making it even more difficult to win.

You have to factor in additional concerns regarding the lineups.
Who’s in, who’s out?
Are starters going to play?
If so, how long?
Does the head coach care about winning a meaningless preseason game or is he just using it strictly as the opportunity for him to evaluate talent, and make it to the regular season without losing any players to injuries?

The final week of the preseason may be the toughest one to handicap. The starters won’t play to eliminate the risk of injury before the real games begin, so you’re stuck trying to handicap 3rd and 4th stringers and guys who aren’t going to make the team. And you have limited data on those players.

All those reasons are why you don’t see me making a lot of bets during preseason. And why sports betters should look to limit their play and the dollar size of their betting unit if they going to place wagers on these games.
Patience is a virtue, and the real thing is only 20 days away. Baltimore at KC.
Should be a hell of a game.

I played two preseason games this year and hit them both, relying on historical data from the teams playing in the Hall of Fame game, and those same teams playing the following week.
I won’t make any bets next week, the final one of preseason play, too risky.
Which leaves me this week’s card to look at.

With two units banked I’ll risk one this weekend, ensuring I achieve my goal – work within windows (time frames) with the end game being to finish with a profit, ANY profit.
My preseason window WILL end with a profit.
I’ll either be 3-0 or 2-1.
It all depends on . . .
Buffalo.

This isn’t going to be an easy one.

I’m betting on a team that only scored six points last week.

I’m betting on a team that gave up 33 points last week.

I’m betting against a head coach, Mike Tomlin, who has a preseason record of 40-25, SU.

One of those 40 wins came against this same Buffalo team last preseason, a 27-15 loss for the Bills.

Not much in my favor looking at those numbers.
So what do I have?

Bill’s coach Sean McDermott is 14-7 SU on preseason, not too shabby.

I’m getting +5′ points in what I’m hoping is going to be a close game won by a FG, either team.

And I’m counting on a piss-poor performance from Russell Wilson.
Wilson is in a battle with Justin Fields for the starting job in what will be his final chance at such an opportunity.
He’s under a lot of pressure, similar to the pressure he was in at Denver last year when he was under the microscope for poor performances.
And he cracked, so the Broncos dumped him.
I’m looking for more of the same from him tomorrow.

Saturday’s play:

Buffalo +1′

Additional Picks

• Indy -2′
• Connecticut -5′

(Reasons in the forum)
And remember, I have a WNBA play tonight that I gave out in yesterday’s article. If you couldn’t figure out the puzzle (or if you didn’t even try, ya lazy bastard) then check the forum later this afternoon for the play.
I’ll post the pick there, and maybe one or two others.

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