Keith Allen

There is always a chance with the Steelers when they are favorites – especially on the road – that they will lay an egg and outright lose a game they should win. But in this case, they have revenge on their minds. The Jags came into Steel City twice last year and beat the Steelers, including the playoff game that ended the Steeler season. The Jags had no hesitation about trash talking after both of those games, which should still be fresh in the Steelers minds. Is this narrative enough to give your bookie action on the Steelers -6? Keith Allen gives his NFL pick.

Sportsbooks say the Rams are more than a FG better but do the numbers align with this thinking? The key stat that separates these teams and the only statistical blemish for the Rams is red zone efficiency. This is the chink in the Rams armor that may end up holding them back down the stretch. They are only scoring touchdowns on 56% of their trips to the red zone, good for only 16th in the league. The Chiefs are scoring touchdowns at a 71% clip, good enough for 6th in the league. In the Rams game against the Saints 2 weeks ago LA also struggled converting on third down, converting only 37% of third downs and also were 0 for 2 on 4th downs. The Rams fill up the stat sheet and remind us of the Greatest Show on Turf, but they are not converting when they need it most. Keith Allen takes a deeper look at the matchup and gives his prediction.

The Giants have been a tough watch this year, with every week seeming to be worse than the previous one. The Giants have never been able to shift out of first gear, and the only relevant question now appears to be who will start behind center in 2019. But should you count Eli out when dealing with the spread or the game total? Keith Allen has MNF’s pick.

Norv Turner took over as Panther Offensive Coordinator for Ron Rivera this year. The hiring left many football analysts scratching their heads as it seemed the game may have evolved and left Turner behind, In-stead, Turner has taken a variety of talent sets and blended them into a dynamic offense. Can Nov come up with enough magic to stay within the 5 that most sportsbooks are giving them? Keith Allen has your NFL pick.

The Dallas defense has been a very pleasant surprise for Cowboys bettors. The team has allowed less than 18 points per game which is the fewest points in the league. They are 5th in yards per play against and 3rd in passing yards allowed. However, they are only 19th in the league in sacks, and have only generated 6 turnovers on the year. Some of their strong defensive numbers are a result of their opponents being conservative on offense to not give the Cowboys a short field. Tennessee will utilize the same strategy, moving the ball and getting points, but also playing the field position game to make Dallas drive the length of the field to score. Is that angle enough for you to give your bookie action on Titans +6.5? Keith Allen gives his Week 9 MNF prediction and analysis.

Home field advantage in the NFL is not one size fits all. Although there is a general narrative that home field is always worth 3 points, some teams have almost no advantage playing at home such as the 2 LA teams (the crowd in last week’s Rams vs Packers game was predominantly Green Bay fans despite a 7-0 Ram team), San Francisco and Cincinnati. So sportsbooks should price the Saints with a big home advantage right? Well, that stat also means the Rams are adept at playing against the crowd. Keith Allen gives his take and his free NFL pick.

After opening the season with a surprise loss to the Ryan Fitzpatrick led Bucs, and then getting lucky to get by the Browns, the Saints are now playing at a very high level. Over the last 4 weeks, Sean Payton’s squad is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread, including 3 road games and 2 as road underdogs. Winning tough road games in week 3 in Atlanta and last week in Baltimore should put to rest any concerns about the Saints being able to win outside of the Superdome. Are they primed to win straight up in this pick’em match? Keith Allen has a strong NFL Pick for the Sunday Night Football match-up.

The Chiefs Defense played their best game of the year last week against Cincinnati. Kansas City played a little bit more of a bend but don’t break defense against the Bengals rather than being more aggressive and risk giving up big plays. They sat back and made the Bengals sustain long drives to put points on the board, betting that the Bengals couldn’t score touchdowns to keep up with the KC offense. If they utilize the same strategy will the Broncos be able to give a good game? Keith Allen breaks it down and offers his prediction.

Many feel that the Steelers are a great home team because of Roethlisberger’s success at home and struggles on the road. But the Steelers are only 3-7 against the spread at Heinz Field since the start of 2017. They have only covered the spread twice since losing Ryan Shazier in week 13 of last year. Keith Allen uses that narrative, and the sportsbook’s reaction to it, to find value in this Sunday play.

The NFL has the greatest athletes in the world, and this game will include some of those athletes Odell Beckham Jr and Saquon Barkley to name a couple, but Alvin Kamara week in and week out is the best player on the field. There are few line linebackers in the league that can stay with Kamara, and none of those wear a Giants jersey. Will Alvin make enough plays to get the cover? Keith Allen breaks down Saint vs Giants.