NFL Football Picks

The NFC South looks to be extremely weak this season. Could it be possible that Keith is betting ALL the teams in this division to go under their posted season wins totals? Get Keith’s NFC South predictions here!

The NFC North division is truly up for grabs with so many unknowns in 2023. The Vikings have talent, all those Lions draft picks over the past few years now have experience, the Bears have made positive moves and an exciting play-making QB in Justin Fields, and don’t count out the Green Bay Packers, even though they’ll be without Aaron Rodgers! Check out Keith’s over/under season wins picks here!

Tom Brady was solid after laying an egg against Tennessee and sinking to his lowest quarterback rating (29.5) and second lowest passer rating (70.6) of the season. He looked like himself again against the Jets, finishing 20-of-31 for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns, and in the process became the NFL’s career leader in total passing yards in both the regular and post seasons. Is Tommy going to stay with his winning ways and help Pats bettors cover the spread with a seven point victory?

One of the reasons that Cleveland and Houston have found success in recent weeks is the elevated play of both defenses. Houston’s defense had a rough start to the year but they have regrouped nicely holding opponents to just 16.2 points per game since week 5. For the Browns, despite the statistical concerns, the Browns have played better with each passing week specifically against the pass where they rank 4th in DVOA rankings. Despite the Defense’s trajectory the sportsbooks have the Brown as 6 point underdogs. Jay Horne looks at the match-up and shares his value pick.

The Jaguars defense, heralded as one of the best coming into the season, continues to be a major disappointment. There’s a lesson to be learned in Jacksonville’s current defensive struggles and that is that you probably shouldn’t talk trash about players you’ll be facing in the near future. Jalen Ramsey said some unflattering things about Ben Roethlisberger and Josh Allen in the offseason and they have both come back to light the Jags up. Does the defense for this 3-8 team have any pride left? Rick gives his prediction for Jags hosting the Colts.

New Orleans is simply running over everything that’s in their way. Over their 10 game winning streak, they have outscored their opponents by 161 points, and they are averaging covering spreads by 10 points per game. In a season of historically great NFL offenses, the Saints are the best of the best. They are first in points scored by 5 points and are first in points per drive by a wide margin. What can Dallas bettors expect the Boys to do to stay within 7? Keith Allen breaks down the game and offer his pick.

The narrative during the 2017 Eagles Super Bowl run was that they were the underdogs. It was them against the world and they had to overcome one hurdle after another. Of course, the Eagles rose to the challenge, overcame every obstacle that landed in their way including being home underdogs in both NFC playoff games and beating the GOAT and his infamous Coach in the big game with a backup quarterback. This year the Eagles are the hunted and in turn commonly see sportsbooks setting them as the big favorite.

Despite the Panthers recent struggles, they have a great opportunity to turn things around this week against a weak Buccaneers defense. In fact, Carolina’s offense behind quarterback Cam Newton and running back Christian McCaffrey have won 3 straight against the Buccaneers. If you stretch those trends out further, Newton has won 9 of the last 11 meetings against the Buccaneers as well. Is there strong enough data to show bookmakers got it wrong giving Carolina 3.5?

The 49ers are in rough shape. For them not to be competitive against a spiraling Tampa bunch is a testament to how bad things are going into week 13. Nick Mullens offered some early promise at quarterback, but has thrown two picks in each of his last two games and the luster is long gone. The story of this team has been injuries. Then just this past week, Rueben Foster went from a difference-maker on defense to getting cut after another transgression. Is this the point where the 49ers give up? This idea can make getting even 10 points from your sportsbook seem like not enough.

So far this season, Pittsburgh has responded well to bad situations. After winning only one of their first four games of the season, they were able to alter course dramatically, winning 6 straight and have not failed to cover the spread once in that period. The last few weeks have seen the Steelers slacking off a bit. First came a close win against Jacksonville where they were half-dead for the first three quarters of the game. Against Denver, four turnovers and a general sagging in overall energy was responsible for the defeat. Does the Pittsburgh roller coaster climb back to the win column and so by 4 points?