Sports Betting Picks & Predictions Against the Spread

MLB Picks & Analysis
Astros vs. Royals Pick: Burrows’ .435 Four-Seam xwOBA Meets a KC Lineup Built to Punish It

Astros vs. Royals Pick: Burrows’ .435 Four-Seam xwOBA Meets a KC Lineup Built to Punish It

Burrows’ four-seam fastball is generating a .435 xwOBA against — the primary reason he’s surrendered 17 home runs in just 73.1 innings — and Kansas City’s middle-order right-handers are built to exploit exactly that profile. The Royals are sitting at -126 on the moneyline despite a projected 67.5% win probability that implies fair odds closer to -204. The analysis is inside.

Cubs vs. Giants Pick: Brown’s 1.74 ERA Meets a Price That Hasn’t Caught Up

Cubs vs. Giants Pick: Brown’s 1.74 ERA Meets a Price That Hasn’t Caught Up

The bullpen gap between these two clubs is compounded by a starter gap that is even wider — San Francisco’s rotation is down two arms on the IL and handing the ball to a 2-3 starter with a 4.15 ERA. Chicago is priced at -126 on the moneyline, a number that barely moves off a coin-flip for a matchup where the component breakdown shows a 1.049-run starting-pitching advantage. Find out which way this one goes.

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