There are many reasons for line movement in NFL point spreads. These reasons include but are not limited to: injuries to key player(s), one sided action in which the bookies need to move the line in order to make an attempt at receiving balanced action, smart money (wiseguy plays), changes in weather and more. Just because a line moves, doesn't mean that it's a game worth betting on. That's where we come in. We pick these games apart, determine if there's value and then either pounce or pass on it. As you can see from looking at our past results (5 straight profitable seasons), our formula for picking these games is a big moneymaker.
Be sure to bookmark this page and check back often as line movement can happen at any given time! This can be great info to help you put your finger on a winner or steer you clear of a dead money play you may have been considering.
Note: This page is usually updated very late in the week (Friday 6PM EST.) and line move plays can come in as late as minutes prior to gametime. It's highly recommended that you check this page multiple times per week so that you don't miss out on any of these golden picks!
Week 16: (12/18 through 12/22) Posted by late Sat. night.
Week 15: (12/11 through 12/15) The Cleveland Browns opened up as +2.5 home underdogs to Cinci. The line has since moved 4 points making the Browns a -1.5 fav, despite only 44% backing the Browns.
Week 15 NFL Line Move Plays: Browns -1.5 (loss).
Week 14: (12/4 through 12/8) The Colts/Browns game opened up at Indy -3.5 and has come down to +3 despite only 27% backing the Browns.
Week 14 NFL Line Move Plays: Cleveland Browns +3 (win).
Week 13: (11/27 through 12/1) We couldn't find any line move plays that we liked so are passing.
Week 12: (11/20 through 11/24) We're not riding any picks that had line moves this week. See you next weekend!
Week 11: (11/13 through 11/17) The Buffalo Bills opened up as +5 road underdogs at Miami. The line went up to -6 and has bounced back down to +4 despite only 45% backing the Bills. Miami has some key injuries and the Bills always play the Phins tough. Good value here! More posted by late Saturday night. The Minnesota Vikings opened up as +3 road dogs at Chicago. The line has been bet down to +2.5 despite only 39% backing the Vikings. The Bears are having issues protecting Jay Cutler. Their secondary is absolute crap as well. We like the Vikings to win the game straight up by more than a touchdown. This is a great play for those who dare to bet pleasers. The KC Chiefs opened up as +1 home dogs to Seattle. The line has moved 2.5 points to make the Chiefs a -1.5 fav. The game is receiving even action on both sides. I'm not convinced that Hawks are the same team away from Seattle. Furthermore, Arrowhead is one of the best homefield advantages in the NFL. In fact, it's very similar to Qwest Field; it's loud as hell! As time goes on, it's becoming very apparent that Wilson's receivers are struggling to get separation from the secondary. This leads to Wilson running the ball more. This is a bad spot for him to execute that style of play as it plays right into the Chiefs strengths. Seattle is horrible at covering tight ends. Look for Kelce to have a big day in a game that will likely be very low scoring and close throughout. The Atlanta Falcons opened up at a pick'em at Carolina and have moved up to -1.5 favs. It's rare that we side with the public (public slightly favoring Dirty Birds at around 55%) but the Panther's OL is so horrible that we're rolling with Atlanta, who are not a very good road team, nor is their offensive line very good. Cam Newton is hurt, they've got no run game and their secondary is horrible. The Falcons should grind out a win here. The Detroit Lions opened at +2.5 at Arizona and have moved to a pick'em. As you probably know, Carson Palmer got knocked out with an injury last week. Backup Stanton is servicable, but when given an opportunity, his stats have been underwhelming to say the least. I expect the Lions to put a ton of pressure on him with their nasty defense. We're very confident that Stanton will toss a couple picks and cough up a fumble or two. On the flip side, Arizona's defense is solid, however, this does not apply to their secondary. The return of WR Calvin Johnson opens things up for the Lions who now become a very dangerous team as they're well balanced on both sides of the ball. Too many negative variables here for AZ.
Week 11 NFL Line Move Plays: Bills +4 (loss), Minnesota Vikings +2.5 (loss), KC Chiefs -1.5 (win), Atlanta Falcons -1.5 (win), Detroit Lions pick'em (loss).
Week 10: (11/6 through 11/10) The New Orleans Saints opened up as -3.5 home favs. vs. a Niners team that really looked out of sorts last week vs. the Rams. SF is struggling on both sides of the ball. We're calling for a Saints BLOWOUT here! The NYJ opened up as +5.5 home underdogs vs. Pittsurgh. The line has dropped down to +4.5 despite only 23% backing the J-E-T-S. The Pitt D is HORRIBLE and has numerous key injuries, the Jets are a much better team than they've shown now that Michael Vick is running the show and the Steelers just don't play as well on the road. It wouldn't surprise us a bit if NY wins this game straight up. The Tennessee Titans opened up at +10.5 on the road at Balt. The line has come down to +10 and even +9.5 at some books despite only 33% backing the Titans. The Ravens are expected to have problems in the seconary which opens the door for the Titans to sneak in a cover.
Week 10 NFL Line Move Picks: N.O. Saints -5 (loss), NYJ +4.5 (win), Titans +10 (loss).
Week 9: (10/30 through 11/3) The Miami Dolphins opened at -1.5 and the line has moved up to -2 despite only 33% backing the Phins. The Houston Texans opened up as +3 home underdogs vs. Philly. The line has dropped to +1.5 despite only 36% backing the Eagles. We're expecting the Eagles secondary to get exploited here in what should be a high scoring game.
Week 9 NFL Line Move Plays: Miami Dolphins -2. (win) and Houston Texans +1.5 (loss).
Week 8: (10/23 through 10/27) The Kansas City Chiefs opened up as -6 home favs vs. the Rams. The line has gone up to -7. Our line moves are usually going the opposite direction of public money. This is a rare case where we agree with the public. The Rams have a very poor run defense and this bodes poorly for them going up against a KC team that will jam it down your throat and then bust out with a pass downfield when you start loading the box. The Rams secondary is banged up as well. This is a real bad spot for STL.
Week 8 NFL Line Move Plays: Kansas City Chiefs -7 (win).
Week 7: (10/16 through 10/20) The Jacksonville Jaguars opened up as +4 home dogs vs. Cleveland. The line has moved up to +5.5 due to the public hammering the Browns. The Browns are missing their Center, which is HUGE. Jacksonville has quietly been improving and may very well win this game.
Week 7 NFL Line Move Plays: Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 (win).
Week 6: (10/9 through 10/13) The Green Bay Packers opened as 3.5 point favorites and despite sportsbook action of 71% on the Pack the line has moved down to 3 at the square books and 2.5 at some of the sharper books.
Week 6 NFL Line Move Plays: Miami +3 (push)
Week 5: (10/2 through 10/6) The St. Louis Rams opened as +8 road underdogs at Philly. The line has dropped to +7 despite only 29% backing the Rams. Some online sportsbooks have even dropped the line to +6.5. The Rams have a great defensive front and Philly is weak. Bad matchup for the Eagles and the Rams may potentially win this game straight up. The Tennessee Titans opened up as suspect -1 favorites at home vs. a Browns team that is starting to turn some heads. The line has gone up a half point despite almost nobody betting on Tennessee, who has looked absolutely horrible at times. Our take here is that the Titans will win the ground game and time of possession battle as well as give Cleveland's passing game some trouble. The New York Giants opened up as -3 home favs and have been bet up to -4 and for good reason! Atlanta has, does and will suck on the road this season. Their secondary resembles a wet paper bag and their hitting the Gmen at the wrong time as Eli and Crew are starting to hit their stride after some early season timing issues and young players not being familiar with the playbook and some of Eli's audibles. The Buffalo Bills opened up as +7 road dogs at Detroit. The line has dropped to +6.5 despite only 38% betting on the Bills. Buffalo is NOT a bad team! Starting QB Manuel is now on the bench and Kyle Orton will be leading the troops. Many of the team's receivers have been quoted as saying Orton gets the ball out faster and his veteran presence suits the team better. Furthermore, Lions WR Calvin Johnson is questionable for the game. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills won this game straight up.
Week 5 NFL Line Move Plays: Rams +7 (win), Tennessee Titans -1.5 (loss), New York Giants -4 (win), Buffalo Bills +6.5 (win).
Week 4: (9/25 through 9/29) The NYG opened up as +4.5 road dogs at Washington. The line quickly moved down to +3.5 despite only 37% backing the GMEN. Wash. is really banged up including losing their top CB and Safety to long term injuries and there's even more. I like NY to win this game straight up.
Week 4 Line Move Plays: NYG +3.5 (win). No Week 4 Sunday games fit our paramters.
Week 3: (9/18 through 9/20) The Bills opened as -1 home favs. vs. the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers are a good team, but might be getting a little too much respect after dumping Seattle last week. This Buffalo team is good and we make them a -6 favorite. The New York Giants opened up as +2.5 home favs vs. the Houston Texans and the line has moved 3.5 points, with the GMen now being the team favored to win, despite only receiving 42% of the public's backing. Houston has beaten up a Redskins team that played poorly and the same can be said about their win last week over the Raiders. They'll get their first test this week at NY. The MNF between Chi/NY opened up as a pickem and has moved to NYJ -2.5 despite the J-E-T-S only receiving 35% of the public's wagering consideration.
Week 3 NFL Line Move Plays: Buffalo Bills -2 (loss), NYG -2 (win).
Week 2: 9/11 through 9/14) The Panthers opened up as -3 point home favs vs. Detroit. The line has dropped to -2.5 due to 62% of the public backing the Lions. It is my opinion that the Lions are average at best and the Giants made them look better than what they really are. I expect a stingy Panthers defense to stand strong and for Carolina to win by a very slim margin, such as a field goal. The New England Patriots opened up as -3 point road favs at Minnesota. The line shot up to -5.5 when the news on Adrian Peterson came out. I liked the Vikes at at +3 and I love it at +5.5. Peterson is a great back, but isn't a huge variable in this game the Pats offensive line is what will be the deciding factor in this game. If they hold up, NE has a good shot of winning. If they don't, which is my opinion, Minnesota wins this game straight up with or without A.P. Asiata is no slouch and will fill in nicely. The NY Jets opened up as +8 road dogs at Green Bay and the line has come down to +7.5 despite a paltry 31% backing the J-E-T-S. I believe G.B. will probably win, but it's very likely that it won't be by more than a touchdown allowing us to sneak in for a cover.
Week 2 NFL Line Move Picks: Carolina Panthers -2.5 (win), Minnesota Vikings +5.5 (loss), NYJ +7.5 (win).
Week 1: (9/4 through 9/8) The Cleveland Browns opened up as +5 road dogs at Pittsburgh. The line has moved to -7 because the public are hammering the Steelers. This is a different Browns team this year. Not a great Browns team, but one good enough to bet getting 7 points! The Jacksonville Jaguars opened up at +11. The line has dropped to +10.5 despite only 30% betting on the Jags.
Week 1 NFL Line Move Plays: Browns +7 (win), Jaguars +10.5 (loss).
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Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
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